Sony Open: Will Wie Do It? by Jeremy Church
From the To the (Previous Seasons') Victors Go the Spoils department: Jason Gore averaged 80 in four rounds at last week's season-opening Mercedes Championships and still walked with ,000.
Among the discussion points one week into the 2006 PGA season: players griping about the wind at Kapalua, some threatening to skip the guaranteed paycheck event next year even if they qualify because of said conditions; top player no-shows like Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Retief Goosen and how their lack of attendance hurts tournaments like the Mercedes and the game at large; Michelle Wie's chances of making the cut at this week's Sony Open; the schedule changes on tap for 2007 and how they affect the negotiations for the 2007 golf TV contracts, well underway and ongoing. It's the latter I'm most interested in. Specifically, what will become of the dynamic duo of Paul Azinger and Nick Faldo now that it appears their employer, ABC, is out of the negotiations?
If ABC is out, we're looking at NBC and CBS doing the bulk of coverage in 2007. Surely one of the two will pick up this odd couple. On one hand, I could see 'Zinger's goofiness working well with the light-hearted quips of messieurs McCord and Feherty at CBS. On the other, Zinger's candid style would marry well with Johnny Miller at NBC. (Faldo doesn't deserve parentheses but he's a suave and steady influence who'll fit in anywhere, especially if he's sitting next to 'Zinger.)
If CBS gets Faldo and 'Zinger, they'd be a force; NBC would be a letdown, even with Miller's refreshing tell it like it is style. So I'm hoping NBC gets the dynamic duo, balancing the quality and entertainment of coverage. NBC could use Azinger on the course the way CBS uses Feherty. That would leave the question of what to do with Faldo. I don't think he and Miller would have the same dynamic as he and 'Zinger if Faldo stays in the booth as an analyst. Whatever shakes down, a little competition between the networks might spice up coverage a bit.
Last week: Stuart Appleby, I love thee. The Aussie hung tough at Kapalua and won his third Merecedes in a row last week. (I picked him two years ago, as well.) I also won the head-to-head, with Ben Crane winding up ahead of Sean O'Hair by eight strokes. To the math: with 1/3rd of a unit on Appleby in the outright (14-1), I netted ,666.67, if you're betting a dime per unit. Two units on Crane (10-11) netted ,818.18. Total for the week: ,484.70. Good start to the season.
This week: Vijay Singh, who won the Sony Open last year, is coming off a playoff second in Kapalua. He putted well in tough conditions, a sign that maybe he's going to have another big year, perhaps bigger than 2005 when he was dogged by inconsistency on the greens. His closing 66---one of only two rounds all week in the 60s and the low round of the tournament---to force the playoff with Appleby was Tigeresque. There's not a lot of money to be made at 7-2, but Singh's the one to beat this week.
Take Bart Bryant (16-1), 1/3rd unit. These odds may lower than you'd expect, but he's got a solid game and if last week's showing in the windy conditions---ninth place---is any indication, he aims to prove last year wasn't a fluke.
Take Adam Scott (20-1), 1/3rd unit. As much as I like Bryant, I can't believe Vegas has his him inside Scott, who sort of won last year at the weather-delayed/interrupted/unofficial Nissan Open, and had five top-10s to boot. He also finished T20 in this tournament. Scott should be more in the 10-1 range; it'd be a steal if he wins with these odds.
Take Vijay Singh (7-2), 1/3rd unit. When you have Singh's record, especially in the last three years (17 wins), you're worth short money in a weak field.
In the head-to-head, take Bryant to finish higher than Shigeki Maruyama (10-11), 2 units. Bryant's a money head-to-head pick because he doesn't get rattled, he scores, he makes cuts (Bryant missed only seven cuts last year in 26 tourneys, Maruyama missed seven in 29). Maruyama is a fan favorite at the Sony Open and plays well there (T3 last year), but Bryant's hotter and active, for the slight edge. He was first last week in hitting greens---his strong suit---and putted well, too.
Time to weigh in on the Michelle Wie will she or won't she make the cut debate with a bet: Put one unit on Wie (2-1) to do it.
Jeremy Church covers Golf for Brian Gabrielle Sports
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